Employment/Experience

• Insight

  • Data Science Fellow, San Francisco. September 2018–October 2018

• University of Washington

  • Core Faculty Member, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, September 2014–September 2018
  • Assistant Professor, Political Science, January 2015–present
  • Acting Assistant Professor of Political Science, September 2014–December 2015

• Emory University

  • Instructor, Political Science, September 2013–August 2014
  • QuanTM Pre-doctoral Fellow, Institute for Quantitative Theory and Methods (QuanTM), January–May 2013

• Federal Reserve Bank of New York

  • Economist, Money and Payments Studies Function, 2007
  • Assistant Economist, Money and Payments Studies Function, 2005–2006
  • Research Associate, Payments Studies Function, 2004–2005

Education

• University of Rochester

  • Ph.D. in Political Science, December 2015
  • M.A. in Political Science, March 2012
  • Dissertation: Three Essays on Conflict and Financial Markets, and Political Methodology
  • Fields: Methodology, Game Theory, International Relations

• Dartmouth College

  • B.A. in Economics, and Government; cum laude; High Honors in Economics, June 2004

Works

Published

• Lincoln A. Mullen, Kenneth Benoit, Os Keyes, Dmitry Selivanov, and Jeffrey Arnold “Fast, Consistent Tokenization of Natural Language Text,” Journal of Open Source Software 3, no. 23 (2018), doi:10.21105/joss.00655.
• Olivier Armantier, Jeffrey B. Arnold, and James J. McAndrews “Changes in the Timing Distribution of Fedwire Funds Transfers,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 2008, http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/08v14n2/0809arma.html.
• Kimmo Soramäki, Morten L. Bech, Jeffrey Arnold, Robert J. Glass, and Walter E. Beyeler “The Topology of Interbank Payment Flows,” Physica A forthcoming (2007).
• Kimmo Soramäki, Morten L. Bech, Jeffrey Arnold, Robert J. Glass, and Walter E. Beyeler “The Topology of Interbank Payment Flows,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 243 (March 2006), http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr243.html.

Unpublished and Other

• Arnold, Jeffrey B. (2018) Quantitative Social Science: The R Tidyverse Code
• Arnold, Jeffrey B. (2018) Exercise Solutions to R for Data Science
• Jeffrey B. Arnold, Aaron Erlich, Danielle F. Jung, and James D. Long “Covering the Campaign: News, Elections, and the Information Environment in Emerging Democracies” (SocArXiv, June 2018), doi:10.17605/OSF.IO/AF9JQ.
• Jeffrey B. Arnold, Connor Gilroy, Daiki Hiramori, and Stephen Winkler “The Long-Term Effects of Gendered Language on Attitudes Toward Homosexuality,” 2018.
• Jeffrey B. Arnold, J. Tyson Chatagnier, and Gary Hollibaugh “Allegiance, Ability, and Achievement in the American Civil War: Commander Traits and Battlefield Military Effectiveness,” January 28, 2018, https://s3.amazonaws.com/docs.jrnold.me/commander-traits-and-battlefields-military-effectiveness-20180128.pdf.
• Jeffrey B. Arnold “Did Financial Markets Anticipate the Onset of the American Civil War?” November 4, 2015, https://s3.amazonaws.com/docs.jrnold.me/Financial_Markets_and_Onset_of_the_American_Civil_War_2015-10-04.pdf.
• Jeffrey B. Arnold “Bayesian Change Points and Linear Filtering in Dynamic Linear Models Using Shrinkage Priors,” October 14, 2015, https://s3.amazonaws.com/docs.jrnold.me/dlm-shrinkage-2015-10-14.pdf.
• Jeffrey B. Arnold “Pricing the Costly Lottery: Financial Market Reactions to Balefield Events in the American Civil War,” September 29, 2013, https://s3.amazonaws.com/docs.jrnold.me/Pricing_the_Costly_Lottery_v_1_4.pdf.
• “Leaders’ Prominence and Cultural Perspectives,” April 11, 2012, https://s3.amazonaws.com/docs.jrnold.me/Arnold_Goemans_Leaders_Fame.pdf.
• Jeffrey B. Arnold “Producing Death: Modeling and Estimating the Technology of Combat,” April 9, 2012, https://s3.amazonaws.com/docs.jrnold.me/Jrnold_Producing_Death_20130412.pdf.
• Jeffrey B. Arnold “In-N-Out of Civil War: A Hidden Markov Model of Civil War,” June 2, 2011, https://s3.amazonaws.com/docs.jrnold.me/cwhmm_2011-06-02.pdf.

Software

See https://github.com/jrnold for open-source software and ongoing projects.

R packages on CRAN

• ggthemes. Author, maintainer.
• pollstR. Author, maintainer.
• smss. Author, maintainer.
• margins. Author.
• tokenizer. Author.

Other

• qss-package, R package. Author.
• lstbayes, LaTeX package. Author, maintainer.
• stan-mode, Emacs package. Author.
• stan-snippets, Emacs package. Author.
• language-stan, Atom package. Author, maintainer.

Conference Presentations

• Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA, August 31–September 1, 2017: “Covering the Campaign: The 2014 South African Presidential Election”.
• Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 7–12, 2016: “Ideology, Appointments, and Battlefield Outcomes”, “Bayesian Change Points and Linear Filtering with Shrinkage Priors”.
• 2015 Meeting of the Peace Science Society, Oxford, MS, November 12, 2015. The American Civil War and International Relations workshop.
• 2014 Meeting of the Peace Science Society, Philadelphia, PA, October 9, 2014. Empirical Implications of the Bargaining Model workshop.
• Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, August 30, 2013.
• PolMeth XXX, Charlottesville, VA, July 18, 2013. “Modeling Changepoints by Time-Varying Parameters and Sparse Priors” (poster)
• Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 12, 2013: “Pricing the Costly Lottery: Financial Market Reactions to Battlefield Events in the American Civil War”, “Producing Death: Estimating the Offense-Defense Balance from the Production Function of Battle Casualties”.
• 2011 Meeting of the Peace Science Society, Savannah, GA, October 26, 2012: “Pricing the Costly Lottery: Financial Market Reactions to Battlefield Events in the American Civil War”
• PolMeth XXIX, Raleigh, NC, 2012, July 19: “Pricing the Costly Lottery: Financial Market Reactions to Battlefield Events in the American Civil War” (poster)
• Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 12–13, 2012: “Who Does History Remember? Using Wikipedia to Measure the Historical Reputation of Leaders”, “Producing Death: Modeling and Estimating the Technology of Conflict”.
• 2011 Meeting of the Peace Science Society, Los Angeles, CA, October 15, 2011: “Pricing the Costly Lottery: Financial Market Reactions to Battlefield Events in the American Civil War”
• 2011 Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Seattle, WA, September 2, 2011: “Destruction or Revelation? Estimating the Influence of Battles on Financial Market Expectations during the the American Civil War” (poster).

Honors & Awards

• Star Lab Poster Award, The Star Lab, University of Rochester, 2012
• Star Lab Best Conference Presentation, The Star Lab, University of Rochester, 2011–2012
• APSA Annual Meeting Graduate Student Travel Grant, 2011
• Graduate Student Teaching Award, Department of Political Science, University of Rochester, 2011
• Sproull Fellowship, University of Rochester, 2007–2009
• John Carroll International Economics Scholar Prize for Outstanding Contribution, 2004
• James O. Freedman Presidential Scholar, Dartmouth College, 2004
• War and Peace Studies Fellow, John Sloan Dickey Center, Dartmouth College, 2003–2004
• James O. Freedman Presidential Scholar Research Assistant, Dartmouth College, 2002–2003

Teaching

Instructor

Graduate

• CS&SS/STAT 564: Bayesian Statistics for Social Sciences, University of Washington, Spring 2018. https://uw-csss-564.github.io/2018/

• POLS/CS&SS 503: Advanced Quantitative Political Methodology, University of Washington, Spring 2018. https://uw-pols503.github.io/2018/

• POLS/CS&SS 501: Advanced Political Research Design and Analysis, University of Washington, Winter 2017. https://uw-pols501.github.io/2018/

• CS&SS/STAT 564: Bayesian Statistics for the Social Sciences, University of Washington, Spring 2017. https://uw-csss-564.github.io/2017/

• POLS/CS&SS 503: Advanced Quantitative Political Methodology, University of Washington, Spring 2017. https://uw-pols503.github.io/2017/

• POLS/CS&SS 501: Advanced Political Research Design and Analysis, University of Washington, Winter 2017. https://uw-pols501.github.io/2017/

• POLS/CS&SS 503: Advanced Quantitative Political Methodology, University of Washington, Spring 2016. https://uw-pols503.github.io/2016/

• POLS/CS&SS 501: Advanced Political Research Design and Analysis, University of Washington, Winter 2016. https://uw-pols501.github.io/2015/

• POLS/CS&SS 503: Advanced Quantitative Political Methodology, University of Washington, Spring 2015. https://uw-pols503.github.io/2015/

Undergraduate

• CS&SS/SOC/STAT 203: Statistical Concepts and Methods for the Social Sciences, University of Washington, Winter 2015.

• POLS 208: Political Science Methods. Emory University. Spring 2015.

• POLS 208: Political Science Methods. Emory University. Fall 2014.

Short Courses

• Political Science Graduate Student Math Camp, Emory University. January 2015.

Professional & Departmental Service

• Selection Committee, The Society of Political Methodology Statistical Software Award.
• Certified Instructor, Software Carpentry, 2016.
• Organizer, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Seminar, Fall 2014–Spring 2018.
• Organizer, International Studies Association (ISA) 2014 Working Group, “Forecasting International Events”, sponsored by The Scientific Study of International Processes Section (SSIP). With Curtis Signorino.
• Summer Workshop on Analysis of Military Operations and Strategy (SWAMOS). Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies, Columbia University, 2012.
• Reviewer: Political Analysis, R Journal, Conflict Management and Peace Science, International Interactions, International Studies Quarterly
• Member: American Political Science Society, Midwest Political Science Society, Peace Science Society, Society for Political Methodology